What is a Theory Of Change?

If you change nothing, nothing will change. The Theory Of Change (TOC) is a visual representation of the logic of how an activity will lead to social or environmental change. The framework identifies the intended causal links between activities and outcomes over time. It is also known as the impact model, impact logic model, programme logic, programme theory, causal model, outcomes hierarchy, results chain, or intervention logic.

A TOC is a graphic and narrative explanation of how and why a change process is expected to happen in a particular context. It is also a process that can allow an organization to understand it’s potential better to achieve ambitious change goals.

Even though organizations are diverse, they all share common elements. Each organization has INPUTS, OUTPUTS, and OUTCOMES (defined below). The TOC displays the relationships between these core elements and brings attention to the underlying assumptions set within the organizations’ environment of external factors. 

It is important to note that this is a “theory,” As such, it is an evidence or assumption-based hypothesis of a solution’s potential to achieve the desired impact and vision. As a result, the TOC must be treated as a live document bound to change. You must adjust this theory and continue to adapt it to the changing contexts as your organization evolves and learn.

The usefulness of the TOC

• A ToC is a roadmap informing the refinement of objectives, additions, changes, or scaling of organizations’ strategies to achieve change goals.
• It helps to clarify your organization’s priorities by defining your goals and the path to reach them.
• It documents what is needed and the steps required to achieve the long-term goals of change initiatives. 
• It also captures the conditions necessary for achieving the outcomes and the long-term impact. 
• With the aid of an outcome framework, a strategic plan is theoretically laid out for achieving an organization’s vision. 
• The theory of change helps translate an organization’s vision into actionable strategies and expected outcomes. 
• It helps align resource mobilization and operational strategy with the organization’s vision to prevent potential derailment. 

TOC vs Logic Framework

The theory of change and logical framework are often seen as interchangeable terms. Still, some argue that the former is an organizational-level model while the latter is specific to the organization’s programs. Our view is that the theory of change is a logical framework that helps to establish a clear and logical sequence of steps needed to achieve the desired impact, starting from identifying needs and problems. Even though an organizational TOC exists, each program or project can be explained with a logical framework or theory of change. A TOC is essentially a logic framework, but not all logic frameworks can be considered TOCs.